The Brexit divorce settlement | ||
Well, now we have the 'divorce agreement' signed by Santa Teresa on Friday 8th December. The agreement has the approval of Remainers and also the leading Brexiteers (apart obviously from Farage and Arron Banks). The leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, has said that she is rejoicing. But what have we actually accepted? Well it seems that rejoicing is indeed in order, because we've taken back control. With the conclusion of this agreement, we now know quite clearly that: Goods and services
a. We're definitely leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market and so can adopt any regulatory framework we like;
and b. Unless the Irish government and the Northern Ireland Assembly agree otherwise, we're going to maintain alignment (i.e. comply) with all the regulations required for membership of the Customs Union and the Single Market. And, of course, there is no Northern Ireland Assembly at the moment to give its agreement. Just MLAs being paid to kick their heels while they argue over whether Irish should become an official language of Northern Ireland, as it is in Ireland itself. People a. We will have complete control of our borders and so will not accept free movement of people between the EU and the UK;
and b. In order to avoid a border between Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, the common travel area will continue in force for the whole of the UK and Ireland, thus preventing our imposing any controls on travel to the UK by nationals of other EU countries via Ireland. Of course, once they're here, then we'll be entitled to hunt them down mercilessly so that we can deport them - again and again.
I don't know how it
took them so long to come up with such an
intellectually coherent and straightforward
solution. Of course, just after
the ink had dried, we had comments from
Michael Gove and David Davis which gave a
slightly different slant to it all. Michael
Gove made it clear that the final agreement,
whenever that may come to fruition, will not
not in fact be the final word. If the
electorate don’t like it, then they can
express their views through the ballot box
at the next general election so that the
incoming government can change it all. He
was writing in the Daily Telegraph, a long
time opponent of the EU, with an elderly
readership who are mostly in agreement with
the editor of their newspaper. So then
they should not lose hope that their real
desire, a hard Brexit, may ultimately be
achieved. Of course, they are by
definition dying out at a greater rate than
the younger generation who are mainly
Remainers, so there is hope for the country
yet. David
Davis told us what was always obvious to
anyone who understands how
the legislative process works: that the
divorce agreement is not
legally binding. He said it was a
statement of intent. So then, if
we didn’t get an acceptable trade deal,
the EU could whistle for
the payments that the UK had agreed to
make. This was in stark
contrast to the position taken by Philip
Hammond, the Chancellor of
the Exchequer, who had said that it was
inconceivable that a country
such as the UK would not make payments
which were legally due from
it. This was an echo of what Teresa May
had said in her Florence
speech. And
now (12th December) we have the EU
demanding that we
enshrine the divorce agreement in
legislation because of the comments
made by Davis – even though he tried
yesterday to row back from
them by saying that when he said it was
a statement of intent, that
meant it was more binding than a
legal obligation! Like a
little child found with his hand in the
sweetie jar denying that he
was after sweets. What Parliament will
make of a Bill incorporating
the carefully crafted wording of the
agreement, I don’t know, but
of course they can always hold their
noses and pass it anyway knowing
that it won’t make a scrap of
difference. As was implicit in what
Gove said – it really doesn’t matter
what Act is passed, because
it can always be repealed later on with
a bare majority. Of
course, what is actually legally due
from the UK to the EU is a
matter of much debate. The
relevant House of Lords select
committee came
to the conclusion that
nothing was legally due from us upon
leaving the club. So then, we
haven’t a clue as to what any of this
means and are unlikely to
know even when it’s all over, because it
will never be all over, if
the Brexiteers have their way, until
every
UK citizen has a bull-dog and the UK
itself has floated off into the
mid-Atlantic, well away from Europe. Happy Brexit! Paul Buckingham 10th December 2017 (revised 12th December)
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